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Black Friday Toy Predictions 2017: Skip Anything That's Not 50% Off

Expect Amazon to be the big name in toy deals, and head to the "Brick Friday" sale for big LEGO discounts.
what to expect

On their own, toys can seem like little, inconsequential purchases. But if you're buying any for the holidays, you're probably buying quite a few. That means finding the best ways to save will pay off big time!

Read on to find out where and when to shop for the best Black Friday toy deals, and what kinds of deals to look for. Then, consider signing up for the DealNews Select newsletter to keep track of the latest deals in your inbox, or download our app to have them at your fingertips.

The Cheat Sheet: Black Friday Toy Predictions

Discounts to Expect

  • Coupons that take an extra 30% off a wide selection of toys

  • 40% to 50% off LEGOs

  • 30% to 50% off tabletop games

  • Mediocre, if any, discounts on the hottest toys of the season

3 Quick Tips You Need to Know

  • A lot of toy deals will be released on the morning of Black Friday.

  • Star Wars' adorable Porg toys will be super hot this year, which means they'll be difficult to find on sale.

  • If a toy is marked 50% off, you can safely bet that it won't get much cheaper before the holiday season.

Want more details on how, what, where, and when to buy toy deals this Black Friday? Then check out our full analysis below.

Great Toy Deals Start Early

You'll see the most toy deals during Black Friday week, and nearly as many the week before. That said, we expect Black Friday itself will be the single best day for toys. Morning will be the best time to shop, too. A few hot items will sell out early, and stores will offer morning-only discounts on other things.

We expect Black Friday itself will be the single best day for toys.

That said, even if the density of deals drops after Black Friday, that doesn't mean you've missed the best ones. We see the highest percentage of Editors' Choice deals after the Cyber Week lull, during the weeks leading up to Christmas.

Don't Count on Finding Hot Toys

If last year is any guide, the hottest toys of the season — like those highlighted in the Toys"R"Us Fabulous 15 list — won't see many deals. In 2016 Hatchimals were so hot we could only find one "deal" for them: a full-price preorder that would guarantee delivery after Christmas!

What will this year's hot items be? It's pretty early to make that call, but if any of the big fall kids movies are wildly successful — like My Little Pony: The Movie or Pixar's Coco — there's a good chance that demand for merchandise will outstrip supply. (We're currently betting that Star Wars Porg toys will be super popular with kids.) Hatchimals are also likely to remain in-demand.


50% to 60% Off Is a Great Toy Deal

Discounts will always vary by brand and product. However, if you do see a retailer cutting 50% or more off a product, you can jump on it pretty safely; that price is unlikely to be beaten later in the season. Last year we saw these sorts of discounts on brands like Fisher-Price, K'Nex, Hot Wheels, Mega Bloks, and many more.

SEE ALSO: How Do Toys Like Hatchimals Become So Popular?

Don't Pay for Shipping

Over 85% of the toy deals we shared last year included free shipping, although some required a coupon. Almost all of the rest offered free in-store pickup.

However, some offers for free shipping required shoppers to spend $25 or even $50 to bag it. The biggest culprit for shipping fees is Kohl's, although even that store offered free shipping or in-store pickup for many items.

Toys"R"Us? Nope! Toys"R"Amazon

For two years running, Amazon has trounced all other online retailers when it comes to toy deals — including Toys"R"Us. In 2016 we listed more than two times as many toy deals from Amazon as the next closest retailer, Walmart. Target got bumped down to third in toy deals last year. Toys"R"Us actually came in fifth — just behind Kohl's. Ouch!

For two years running, Amazon has trounced all other online retailers when it comes to toy deals — including Toys"R"Us.

boy with plane

Check for Coupons... at Some Stores

Amazon and Walmart rarely offer coupons for toys, but that's not true of some of the other leading merchants. Nearly all of the deals we highlighted from Kohl's were improved by one or more coupons; the same could be said for about a quarter of the deals from Target and Toys"R"Us. When these codes are available, you don't want to miss them — even coupons cutting an extra 30% off aren't rare.

For smaller chains, such as Disney Store and ThinkGeek, coupons offering free shipping were relatively common. Discount coupons were rarer, but those we saw were often substantial. For instance, we saw a coupon that gave a free plush with the purchase of another plush from Build-A-Bear Workshop.

Look for LEGO on Black Friday

Definitely check the LEGO Store's "Brick Friday" sale for deep discounts on select sets. Past years' sales have offered discounts as deep as 40% or 50% off, making it the best sale for many specific and hard-to-find LEGO items.

If you don't find what you want, don't despair! Good deals on individual sets will continue throughout the season, and you'll likely see a few general sales (such as 20% off all LEGO) later on. Toys"R"Us often takes up to 40% off smaller selections of LEGO products, such as LEGO DUPLO.

SEE ALSO: Will New UPS Fees Make Your Holiday Shopping More Expensive?

Expect to Save on Tabletop Games

Retailers are realizing that people are willing to put their money where their meeple's at, rewarding tabletop gamers with great sales. Last year Target took 50% off kids games and party games on Thanksgiving. We also saw several solid sales on hobbyist board games during Black Friday week, with retailers cutting 30% or more off of large selections. Amazon continued to offer great deals on individual hobbyist titles (like 50% off Alhambra and $31 off Pandemic Legacy) deep into December.

What are you hoping to see with toy deals this year? Let us know in the comments, or check out all our Black Friday predictions below.

Excited for Black Friday deals? Consider subscribing to the DealNews Select Newsletter to get a daily recap of all our best deals; you never know when a Black Friday price will be released! You can also download our app, or check out all our features for more buying advice.

Contributing Writer

Formerly a content writer for DealNews, Erin Coduti now brings that experience to the blog team as a freelancer. Previously, she wrote for a television news station and a literary fan magazine.
DealNews may be compensated by companies mentioned in this article. Please note that, although prices sometimes fluctuate or expire unexpectedly, all products and deals mentioned in this feature were available at the lowest total price we could find at the time of publication (unless otherwise specified).
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