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Black Friday Video Game Predictions 2017: Huge Savings on Xbox One S, PS4 Slim, and VR

Newer consoles won't drop below list price, but last year's best bets could see deep discounts. Plus, look for actual VR deals this year.
what to expect

Update: Black Friday deals are now live! Check out our video game page for the top deals.

What to Expect From Black Friday Gaming Deals

Making a shopping list for the holidays? Chances are good it'll include at least one gaming deal. From AAA titles to immersive VR to the newest consoles, our Black Friday predictions are here to help protect your wallet and your sanity. Here's the most up-to-date info for all your video game shopping needs.

So what can you expect from Black Friday gaming deals? Below, we've created a "cheat sheet" with the top tips you need to know when shopping. Savvy consumers who want more information should scroll down for our in-depth analysis.

After reading our tips, consider signing up for the DealNews Select newsletter to keep track of the latest deals in your inbox, or download our app to have them at your fingertips.

The Cheat Sheet: Black Friday Gaming Predictions

Prices to Expect

  • AAA titles (those big Blockbuster games on everyone's list) will start at $25, depending on release date

  • Xbox One S 500GB and 1TB bundles could drop as low as $159 and $179, respectively

  • PS4 Slim 1TB models could fall to $249, a modest discount of $50 off

  • HTC Vive could drop to $509, while Oculus Rift bundles could drop to $349

  • Basic PlayStation VR bundles may drop to $379; PS VR Worlds bundles could fall to $399

5 Quick Tips You Need to Know

  • The Xbox One X will be released on November 7. Expect list price, high demand, and low stock for Black Friday.

  • Older consoles (like Xbox One) will likely only be available as refurbs.

  • Oculus Rift Touch recently got a permanent price drop to $399, and there could be a further 7% drop on Black Friday.

  • The PS4 Slim now comes with a 1TB hard drive, but older bundles still contain the 500GB Slim.

  • Last year's Black Friday price on the PS4 500GB model might be as good as it gets for that console.

Want more details on how, what, where, and when to buy video game deals this Black Friday? Check out our full analysis below.

what to buy

What to Buy

HTC and Oculus Are Viable VR Choices

Virtual Reality is growing, and HTC and Oculus are on the cutting edge. We only saw two deals on this nascent tech last year, but we're seeing many more this holiday season. If you've been holding off, know that we're expecting significant VR savings for Black Friday.

In 2016, the HTC Vive came bundled with a $100 gift card and two games for $699, which was $100 off at the time. Recently though, the system got a permanent $200 price drop to $599. Since that drop, we've seen the system go for as little as $549. We wouldn't be surprised to see another 8% drop on Black Friday, bringing the price to around $509.

The Oculus Rift Touch's latest discount brings it to a permanent low of $399 — making it the same price as the PlayStation VR system.

The Oculus Rift Touch has dropped in price more than once this year. The latest discount brings it to a permanent low of $399 — making it the same price as the PlayStation VR system. The Touch controllers alone have also dropped in price — from $199 to $99.

We've seen the Oculus system fall to $374 recently. As such, we expect a further 7% discount for Black Friday, bringing it as low as $349. That would make it $250 off of the debut price, and a major contender for doorbuster-status this year.

If you already own a PS4, the PS VR might be your best bet — especially now that new bundles have arrived. The basic bundle includes the VR headset and camera for $399. We could see a modest price drop to $379 during Black Friday, but it probably won't be much more than that.

Existing PS VR Worlds bundles (which include the VR headset, camera, two PlayStation Move motion controllers, and PlayStation VR Worlds) currently retail for $449. Those could drop to $399 for Black Friday.

Last Year's Xbox Models Could Drop to $200 (or Less)

Xbox One S 500GB bundles were abundant last year. Most retailers offered Battlefield 1, Minecraft, and Gears of War 4 console bundles — plus extras — for around $249. They dropped 17% from release to Black Friday last year. But if current trends hold, a Black Friday doorbuster price of $159 (or $140 off), is conceivable for an Xbox One S 500GB bundle this year. Even if you miss out on the doorbusters, we're expecting many retailers to offer these packages for $199, which is still a $100 savings.

Looking for more storage? The 1TB models dropped 23% last year, and we could see these bundles hit $179 — or $170 off — for doorbusters, and $229 otherwise. After a 15% drop last year, we expect the 2TB bundles to be around $259 for doorbusters (a $140 savings), and $299 for more average deals (a $100 savings).

Last Year's PS4 Bundles Offer a Chance to Save

Earlier this year, Sony announced the PS4 Slim would be on the receiving end of a storage upgrade, but the price would remain the same. The 500GB Slim console has been phased out it seems (although it can still be found in a variety of bundles). Instead, the standalone PS4 Slim console is now 1TB but still costs $299. This could be great news for those who were waiting for price drops on the newest PS4.

The 500GB PS4 Slim will drop to $169, while the 1TB version will drop to about $249.

With the 1TB models taking over, bundles from last year with the 500GB console could drop even lower than $249. This could also mean we'll see more bundles with the 1TB console this season, instead of the 500GB model. If you happen to find a standalone 500GB Slim, it could theoretically fall to $169, a savings of $130. If all you see is the 1TB Slim, it could still see a discount of $50, dropping it to $249.

The PS4 500GB (Probably) Won't Fall Any Lower

Last year, the PS4 500GB console (not the Slim) dropped 39% to a price of $209 for Black Friday. That's also been the lowest price we've seen this year, which means the console could go either way for the holidays this year. It could drop as low as $129, which would be an incredible $270 savings. Or, more likely, it's so close to bottoming out that this $209 price tag is as good as it gets. That's still a significant savings of $190, though. If we do see a decrease, it'll probably only be slight.

Blockbuster Titles at 50% Off

Black Friday is usually an amazing time to add the latest games to your collection. Console bundles are almost always a great way to go to pay practically nothing for recently released games. Beyond that, many AAA video games are likely to see their prices cut by 50% or possibly even more for Black Friday. Mass Effect: Andromeda has already hit $20, while Resident Evil 7 has dropped to $24. Even Horizon Zero Dawn and Prey have fallen to $30 and $36, respectively.

Games released earlier in the year will be half off for Black Friday, but October and November releases will see more modest discounts of about $10.

Don't forget: Q3 and Q4 titles (which are slated for release much closer to Black Friday), are going to see much slimmer discounts, if any at all. Note that Assassin's Creed: Origins is due out in late October, while Star Wars Battlefront II and Call of Duty: WWII are both due for release in early November. We'll be surprised if those drop more than $5 to $10 for Black Friday.

Nintendo Won't Deliver Deals

First of all, Nintendo has the handheld market completely cornered now. The PS Vita was on its way out last year; even if Sony won't admit the truth, that console seems pretty done. (It's not even available for purchase from PlayStation's own website anymore.)

This means Nintendo has even fewer reasons to drop prices on 3DS systems now. Last year we suggested opting for a decent tablet instead, and we haven't changed our tune. It might set you back a little more up front, but a tablet can do much more than a traditional system like the Nintendo 3DS.

It should be noted that Nintendo isn't planning to kill the 3DS systems off... yet. However, it's not hard to see that the company seems to have gone all in on the Switch.

There's no reason for Nintendo to offer discounts since it owns the handheld market and the Switch is too new for deals.

And speaking of the Switch (which is likely to be on many wish lists this year), don't expect any deals on the popular console. It might be easier to find the console/handheld combo in stock, but that'll be at list price (or close to it). With games like Super Mario Odyssey releasing in the fall, demand will probably go up again for the holidays.

Don't Expect Xbox One X Discounts

The Xbox One X is due to be released on November 7. With that being so close to Black Friday, we'd be seriously surprised to see any drops on the Xbox One X at all in time for the holidays — much less a notable one. But if you're in the market for one of last year's models, there's a good chance you'll see much steeper discounts on those.

PS4 Pro Price Cuts Are Also Unlikely

Sony isn't bringing a new PlayStation console to the table this year. The industry speculation has been buzzing around what would happen to the Xbox One X if the PS4 Pro receives a price cut. Don't count on that, though — so far Sony says it doesn't plan on making any cuts.

when to shop

When to Shop

Black Friday Week Wins Again

So when's the best time to score those winning game deals this Black Friday?

Games, consoles, and their accessories will all be featured in deals throughout Black Friday week. Most of the video game deals will fall on Thanksgiving itself. Last year, 74% of all the game deals that day were Editors' Choice-worthy. In fact, across all these categories, 59% of the offers that week were good enough to earn our Editors' Choice seal of approval.

However, don't wait too long. Once Black Friday has come and gone, gaming deals tend to quickly become nonexistent. Last Cyber Week, there was only one noteworthy deal and it was a PS4 500GB console bundled with one game. The true bargains definitely happen in the lead-up to Black Friday.

where to shop

Where to Shop

Price Matching Makes Amazon a Safe Choice

Time is precious, especially on Black Friday. If you want to save time — and avoid shopping in-store — Amazon is a pretty safe bet for handling all your game shopping. This is because Amazon likes to price items competitively; you can expect the mega-retailer's prices to be pretty close (if not exact matches) when it comes to items from retailers like Walmart and Target.

Amazon likes to price games competitively, and you can expect the mega-retailer's prices to be pretty close to those from Walmart and Target.

If you're not opposed to venturing into physical stores, Walmart and Target have historically offered big savings for gamers. They're both particularly good during Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and even Cyber Weekend for video game titles and consoles. In fact, the lowest price we saw on both Xbox One S and PS4 Slim bundles last year came from Target — which Amazon then matched.

What are you hoping to see with video game deals this year? Let us know in the comments, or check out all our Black Friday predictions below.

Excited for Black Friday deals? Consider subscribing to the DealNews Select Newsletter to get a daily recap of all our best deals; you never know when a Black Friday price will be released! You can also download our app, or check out all our features for more buying advice.

Staff Writer

Julie joined DealNews in 2015, after many years of becoming well-versed in technology issues as a communications professional for a software company. She first entered journalism in college, reporting on issues facing frugal students for Julie lives in DealNews' hometown of Huntsville, AL.
DealNews may be compensated by companies mentioned in this article. Please note that, although prices sometimes fluctuate or expire unexpectedly, all products and deals mentioned in this feature were available at the lowest total price we could find at the time of publication (unless otherwise specified).
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